Bad news : Wine crop down a lot
Good news: quality generally good
By ROBERT MAYNE
With much of Australia's winegrape harvest in, there are some startling
if not surprising) deviations to recent vintages. It is expected to be
the smallest harvest since 2000 and a third smaller that of last year,
2006, according to official statistics.
The statistics have been released by the Australian Wine and Brandy
Corporation, the Federal Government's wine authority, and show a likely
harvest of 1.35 million tonnes. This means about 400 million litres of
wine less than last year.
Good news for buyers? Yes, but not yet. While white wine will flow
through into the system fairly quickly -- from later of this year --
red wines will hang around in stainless steel, barrel and maturing in
bottle for a few years before release; stocks and new supplies should
keep prices stable.. Then they will be more expensive.
And quality, especially of reds, looks good. Bunches of grapes are
generally thinner and smaller, therefore intensity of flavour will be
affected as well as yield. Drought, frosts and reduced water
availability will all have an effect, especially in higher, cooler
areas. Bunches are smaller and should increase colour and flavour
intensities in those that have not been harvested yet. The good news
side is that there has been very little disease in vines because of the
heat and lack of moisture.
And the results of the 2007 crop are likely to be carried forward to
the 2008 crop as the primordial buds in next season's grape vines will
be affected by poor development this year.
This does not means that there will be cheaper wines soon, though this
may follow to some extent if exports continue their rise. It does
however seem likely that a much-awaited return to balance
(supply/demand) is possible, even likely in around 2009.
This year, 2007 (January to May) new bearing vines will yield only a
two per cent increase hectares of bearing vines, a result of at least
five years of subdued plantings, because lower financial yields to
potential and existing growers.
I have inspected some of the so-far unharvested vines in South
Australia, and they show the signs of stress and heat with little or no
water available.
The "big" reds from makes such as Penfolds, many McLaren Vale makers
including Hardy's, some Coonwarra makers, Clare and Langhorne Creek
will be highly intensive when they are released in three to five years.
Hunter reds are likely to be similar -- extractive, full flavoured and
high in alcohol.
More detailed industry statistics will be released in June and July
when results are clearer and winemakers can turn their attention to
wines that have been picked, crushed and are undergoing fermentation.
Highlights of the 2007 vintage: * Harvest likely to be 1.35 million
tonnes * Smallest harvest since 2000 * Cool climate wines (generally
smaller makers) will be hardest hit * Reds more affected than the white
wines * Cheaper wines (casks and flagons) likely to be more expensive
in about a year * 2009 level off in supply/demand
About the Author
Robert Mayne is an Adelaide based freelance journalist, wine writer,
and senior consultant for Wine Lovers Club Pty Ltd; a mail order wine
business specialising in premium mixed dozens and quality winery direct
bargains. For more details http://www.wineloversclub.com.au
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